In this session, speakers briefly outlined recent experiences and thoughts on Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) for Anticipatory Action (AA). Niccolò Lombardi, Anticipatory Action Coordinator at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), started by providing an overview of common food security indicators and outlined the challenges in determining when to measure the effects of early actions on food security. Anna Lena Huhn, now WFP’s Regional Forecast-based Financing Advisor in Southern Africa, described the challenges gathering quality data after cyclone Chalane while working with the German and Mozambique Red Cross Societies in early 2021. Despite having a well developed M&E protocol, the team still faced challenges finding qualified analysts, getting a random sample of beneficiaries, and getting people to distinguish impacts from two cyclones that happened very close to one another. Finally, Clemens Gros from the Red Cross Red Crescent (RCRC) Climate Centre presented a recent review of “leaner” methodologies for gathering evidence. The Success Case Method appears to hold promise. Like quasi-experimental methods, it compares beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, but it also allows for more in-depth exploration of specific cases, including people who were able to act early without receiving anticipatory assistance. During the discussion, participants and panelists reiterated the need for lighter-touch evaluation methodologies for ethical reasons and because of resource constraints. The session concluded with some reflections on the ability to harmonize approaches across organizations, particularly those that have similar goals (like food security). However given the diversity of intended humanitarian outcomes from Anticipatory Action, developing common indicators is tricky. 

Dr. Diana Mantel