In this session, speakers presented an overview of the 2021/22 La Niña event, explained how the Global El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Analysis Cell identifies countries at highest risk from ENSO events, outlined anticipatory action (AA) activities in the East Africa region following an early warning related to ENSO, and offered an overview of NGO perspectives on using ENSO forecasts.
Andrew Kruczkiewicz, Senior Researcher at Columbia University’s International Research Institute (IRI), and Álvaro Silva, Programme Officer at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), discussed how La Niña conditions developed in Sep-Oct 2021 with prospects of a weak-to-moderate event through the first quarter of 2022, resulting in rainfall anomalies in the affected region. Speakers described how the multi-criteria process of the Global ENSO Analysis Cell resulted in identification of countries at highest risk from the effects of La Niña.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Head of WMO’s Regional Climate Prediction Services, explained how seasonal forecasting information supports humanitarian action through mechanisms and entities working at the global, regional, sub-regional and national level, with the objective of providing hazard-specific services analyzing impact in various sectors.
Brenda Lazarus, an economist at FAO, provided the regional perspective of the East and Central Africa Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG), a regional platform for coordination of food security and nutrition early warning and advocacy. Brenda highlighted how FSNWG’s early warning products related to the impact of La Niña and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on rainfall patterns in East Africa, typically associated with below-average rainfall, resulted in the development of an Anticipatory Action and Response Plan for Pastoral and Agro Pastoral Communities in Kenya in 2021 - led by FAO and the Government of Kenya.
Finally Richard Ewbank, Global Climate Advisor at Christian Aid, provided some NGO perspectives on using ENSO forecasts. Richard highlighted the need to better understand how ENSO-based Early Warning can be integrated across stakeholders at national to local levels, with a need to put greater emphasis within climate services and impact forecasting to support the most vulnerable, and a necessity to further improve early warning and Anticipatory Action systems developed within Christian Aid.