This session focused on how vulnerability information combined with impact-based forecasts are key to triggering anticipatory actions (AA) and inform decisions on if, how, and where to act – shifting perspectives to pre-emptively act instead of reacting post-disaster.
Quraishia Merzouk (FAO) detailed how the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), a multi-partner initiative for improving food security and nutrition analysis and decision-making, produces predictive analysis on severity and magnitude of food crises relevant to AA specialists. At the global level, the IPC analysis underpins recommended AA provided in the tri-annual Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity report, which highlights countries likely to face fast deterioration of acute food insecurity. At the country level, the IPC analysis is used as a basis to trigger AA such as in the Sudan (2017), Somalia (2020), southern Madagascar (2017) and Ethiopia (2021). Therefore, to strengthening the link between IPC and AA at country level, requires an understanding of the importance of timing and frequency of IPC analysis and timing of AA is required. Moreover, there’s a need to establishing functional monitoring systems and incorporate risk factor monitoring/analysis and AA triggers into IPC-AFI process and strong monitoring systems.
Josselin Gauny (FAO) detailed how the FAO Data on Emergency Hub could be used to inform AA such as data that consists of primary data collected from households and key informants. Also, the Hub generates relevant and timely primary data that can trigger AA, design intervention and activity, and can also feed into IPC analysis. Through the new initiative under the Hub, a geospatial risk profiling application to gather different geo layers about historical risk factors and hazards in vulnerable countries, will further enhance its relevance for AA. Josselin noted that emerging data facility will offer more opportunities to inform AA thanks to the Hub, a public platform that can be used as a key resource by AA practitioners. The Hub also provides relevant and timely data from countries at risk.
Junver Arcayna (Oxfam) and Esteban Masagca (People's Disaster Risk Reduction Network [PDRRN]) presented the Building Resilient, Adaptive and Disaster-Ready Communities (B-READY), as a project of Oxfam and partners in the Philippines. It is a forecast-based financing model that builds capacity of communities and local government units on scientific early warning systems, pre-emptive cash transfer, and safeguarding and protection programming. Within B-READY, vulnerabilities for AA are assessed based on the review and updates of municipal risk assessments, contingency plans and historical and parametric forecasted data. Lessons learned included (i) participation and transparency wherein communities and partner local government units are part of decision-making in prioritizing targets and common understanding of forecasting and AAs; (ii) local governance structure as critical and effective public communication channels; (iii) yearly updating of risk assessments and plans for pre-determined/identified beneficiaries, among others.
In conclusion, it was noted that effective implementation of AAs requires innovative approaches towards vulnerability assessments (timing and frequency), beneficiary selection, common targeting, improved data, and better information sharing mechanisms.