Aklilu Dinkneh Teklesadik from Netherland Red Cross'  510 Global Data Initiative presented the trigger model used for typhoons in the Philippines. The trigger is considered reached, when the model predicts that more than 10 perecent of houses will be completely damaged in at least three municipalities. A prediction model is run, processing hazard and vulnerability data (e.g. housing type) and data of past impacts, and generating maps of the anticipated impact. Aki noted that the model still holds challenges. Therefore, the team aims at moving from using deterministic forecasts to probabilistic, allowing a wider consideration of scenarios in the future.

Hilla Wessel