What are dry spells and what are their impacts in Malawi? Josée Poirier and Tinka Valentijn of the Humanitarian Data Centre shared their experiences of their journey on anticipatory action for dry spells in Malawi. They explained that dry spells are short periods of dryness which can have an impact on crop production. Whereas the shock is sudden, the impact is rather long-term. They then partnered with WFP who is already experienced in the country and helped with the definition of dry spells: 15 consecutive days with less than 2 mm cumulative rainfall. As there is no ground truth data available yet, they used ENSO data for the seasonal- and CHIRPS for the short-term forecasts. It was agreed that the best option now is a monthly rainfall forecast. Still, the false alarm ratio is a challenge. However, the Humanitarian Data Centre published the data of this project and invites everyone to contribute towards defining the trigger for dry spells in Malawi.

Hilla Wessel