Ralf Südhoff (Centre for Humanitarian Action) welcomed this session, noting that we still face big knowledge gaps on how to expand anticipatory action to situations of conflict. Marie Wagner (GPPi) set the basis for the session by elaborating on the building blocks for forecast-based action (FbA). She distinguished two types of FbA related to conflict: Firstly, action based on forecasts of hydrometeorological hazards in conflict situations, and secondly actions based on forecasts of conflict. The building blocks are more complex in such cases, especially for the second type.

Bart Vermeiren (ICRC Philippines) remarked that anticipatory action acts as an accelerator of humanitarian action. However, a variety of barriers exists, such as the unpredictability of impacts on fighting parties, access to the field, and collection of reliable data. Luca Parodi (FAO) highlighted that the main information gap exists for the immediate consequences of conflicts and displacement, recommending that we follow a pragmatic approach that builds upon pre-existing structures and processes.

Johan Eldebo (World Vision, START Network) presented the ‘Good Enough Context Analysis for Rapid Response’ (GECARR) - a rapid context analysis in volatile contexts to fill information gaps when decisions need to be taken. He addressed the challenge of data availability in fragile contexts, drawing on an example of how the GECARR was used in Burundi. Matthias Amling (GFFO) wrapped up the session and emphasised the importance of the topic for GFFO and the role of the Anticipation Hub in hosting a Working Group to advance cooperation around this topic.