The session covered the challenges for implementing anticipatory action in conflict settings. Moderated by Nora Guerten from FAO, the speakers were Rozella Quilla from FAO Philippines, Kaustubh Devale from FAO Afghanistan and Marie Wagner from the Global Public Policy Institute.
In principle, according to Marie Wagner, Forecast-based Actions (FbA) in situations of conflict can be divided in two types:
- FbA for hydro-meteorological hazards in conflict situations, and
- FbA to anticipate conflicts as such. On this topic, the panellists emphasized that “we need to recognize and acknowledge that the rules of the game are significantly different for conflict-sensitive anticipatory action approaches than the usual rules for anticipatory action in a non-conflict situation.”
Throughout the session, the group discussed the first elements of forecasting and providing early warnings in conflicts, secondly the challenges of implementation and finally arguments how to convince decision-makers to invest. Key lessons learnt for FbA in conflicts are that organizations need to increase their institutional agility and flexibility in order to operate in situations of conflict. Supporting the government in mainstreaming anticipatory actions in their interventions can facilitate a push in this direction as well. Furthermore, donors should exchange on their funding mechanisms to maximize their experiences and see which approaches can be most valuable for anticipatory actions. While there is humanitarian imperative of investing in anticipatory actions in conflict contexts, showing the co-benefits of these in sowing the seeds for programming on the triple nexus of humanitarian-development-peace further bolster the case for donors to invest in anticipatory actions in conflict contexts particularly in protracted conflict situations.
Hilla Wessel