According to Brian Bogart, Forecasting has to underline our understanding of how food security and nutrition needs are going to manifest themselves in the region and guide all of our planning, resourcing and implementation efforts, explains Brian Bogart when presenting WFP’s work on anticipating drought in Southern Africa. “Rather than thinking of anticipatory action as a pilot, we think of it as our core business, particularly when it comes to drought.”

According to Brian anticipatory action is especially important for drought, as it is the most pervasive cause of food insecurity and the most obvious consequence of climate change in Southern Africa. But also, for this hazard, anticipatory action can really offer a significant window of time. Rainfall in the region generally occurs from October to March with the harvest coming in April/May. Seasonal assessments are usually carried out in August. Activities are normally planned and resourced based on these assessments. But, as Brian explains “the response window traditionally begins only with the following rainy season, so November/December, as the rainfall begins, we enter the peak of our lean seasons. If we wait for August to have a sense of what the needs are going to be, that really limits our window in terms of early response, preventive activities and for raising awareness of some of the needs to mobilize ressources.”

Moving to a forecast-based approach, WFP can estimate needs from March or even February with reasonable accuracy to guide the planning process, to begin the conversations on where WFP will – collectively with partners and governments – focus its efforts.